PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .389vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 30%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 22%Changeup 21%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-30 game page →