PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .368vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 29%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Changeup 20%Curveball 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 443 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 500 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-02 game page →