PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .379vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 30%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Changeup 20%Curveball 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.