PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .373vs RHH xwOBA .308Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 29%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Changeup 20%Curveball 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 547 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 405 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 572 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-28 game page →