PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .389vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 30%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 22%Changeup 21%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (22% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-24 game page →