PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .379vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 30%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Changeup 20%Curveball 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.