PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .379vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 30%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Changeup 20%Curveball 2%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JS Josh Smith LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 YP Yohendrick Piñango LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yohendrick Piñango
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.