PITCHER MATCHUP

Rhett Lowder vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Rhett Lowder's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Rhett Lowder's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .372vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2024
Sinker 30%Slider 27%Four-Seam Fastball 21%Changeup 20%Curveball 2%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Rhett Lowder, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (20% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-26 game page →