PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .326vs RHH xwOBA .372Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 37%Changeup 23%Slider 16%Sweeper 12%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Curveball 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 RL Royce Lewis RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AM Austin Martin RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-29 game page →