PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 21%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 9%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.