PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .389Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Slider 19%Four-Seam Fastball 11%Sweeper 9%Curveball 1%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MV Matt Vierling RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (11% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-23 game page →