PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .335Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 20%Slider 10%Four-Seam Fastball 10%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JB Javier Báez SH .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.