PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 20%Slider 10%Four-Seam Fastball 10%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 636 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AR Adley Rutschman SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Trevor Story RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CW Connor Wong RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EW Eli White RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-12 game page →