PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 21%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 9%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.