PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 21%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 9%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jake Mangum SH .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.