PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .330vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 20%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 10%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-18 game page →