PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .328vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 19%Slider 11%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Curveball 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LC Luis Campusano RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Campusano
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.