PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .347vs RHH xwOBA .336Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 36%Slider 24%Changeup 23%Four-Seam Fastball 12%Sweeper 3%Curveball 2%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 408 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LR Luis Rengifo SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (36% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-18 game page →