PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 21%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 9%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 477 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.