PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .328vs RHH xwOBA .332Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 19%Slider 11%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Curveball 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .218 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 ER Esteury Ruiz RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esteury Ruiz
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-01 game page →