PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 21%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 PR Pedro Ramírez SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Ramírez
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Matt Shaw RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GA Gabriel Arias RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Arias
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.