PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .316vs RHH xwOBA .377Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 37%Changeup 22%Sweeper 18%Slider 12%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Curveball 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 518 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MB Michael Busch LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 586 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-09 game page →