PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 21%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 9%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 582 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 561 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 605 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IH Ian Happ SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 618 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.