PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 38%Changeup 22%Sweeper 21%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Slider 9%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sinker (38% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.