PITCHER MATCHUP

Randy Dobnak vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Randy Dobnak's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Randy Dobnak's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .329vs RHH xwOBA .344Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 37%Changeup 22%Sweeper 19%Slider 12%Four-Seam Fastball 10%Curveball 1%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Randy Dobnak, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Myles Straw RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sinker (37% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-26 game page →