PITCHER MATCHUP

Quinn Mathews vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Quinn Mathews's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Quinn Mathews's arsenal

Throws LHPvs RHH xwOBA .290Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 42%Slider 23%Changeup 17%Curveball 12%Sinker 6%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Quinn Mathews, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 543 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-28 game page →