PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Sinker 22%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .344
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .378
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AW Austin Wells LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .427
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .433 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .460 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .436 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.