PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .273vs RHH xwOBA .255Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Sinker 21%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .333
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .373
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AW Austin Wells LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SJ Spencer Jones LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Jones
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.