PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .288vs RHH xwOBA .255Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Sinker 19%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 4%Slider 1%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RG Randal Grichuk RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randal Grichuk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (49% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.