PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Sinker 21%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .424 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .379
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 502 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-13 game page →