PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Sinker 22%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .365
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.