PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .290vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 50%Sinker 19%Cutter 18%Curveball 8%Changeup 4%Slider 1%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .329
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .361
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LT Leody Taveras SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CM Coby Mayo RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CC Colton Cowser LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.