PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Sinker 20%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 552 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-06 game page →