PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Washington Nationals

How the Washington Nationals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .313vs RHH xwOBA .266Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 50%Sinker 19%Cutter 17%Curveball 8%Changeup 4%Slider 2%

How the Washington Nationals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Washington Nationals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .330
  1. 1 DL Daylen Lile LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daylen Lile
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW James Wood LHB .378
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Wood
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CA CJ Abrams LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. CJ Abrams
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JY Jacob Young RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jacob Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NN Nasim Nuñez SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nasim Nuñez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CM Curtis Mead RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KR Keibert Ruiz SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Keibert Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JV Jorbit Vivas LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorbit Vivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (17% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →