PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Sinker 22%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .338
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .429 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.