PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .288vs RHH xwOBA .255Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Sinker 19%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 4%Slider 1%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .330
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BB Brett Baty LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 586 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JY Jared Young LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 LT Luis Torrens RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.