PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .303vs RHH xwOBA .275Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 50%Sinker 19%Cutter 18%Curveball 8%Changeup 4%Slider 2%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .343
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BB Brett Baty LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Juan Soto LHB .414
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .447 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LT Luis Torrens RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 FL Francisco Lindor SH .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →