PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .288vs RHH xwOBA .255Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Sinker 19%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 4%Slider 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ER Esteury Ruiz RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esteury Ruiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-25 game page →