PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Sinker 22%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .329
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .371
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.