PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .285vs RHH xwOBA .268Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 52%Sinker 18%Cutter 16%Curveball 8%Changeup 4%Slider 2%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .335
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .354
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .362
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MG Mitch Garver RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →