PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .270Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 50%Sinker 19%Cutter 18%Curveball 8%Changeup 4%Slider 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .331
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 530 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .374
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CE Colt Emerson LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MG Mitch Garver RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.