PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .273vs RHH xwOBA .255Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Sinker 21%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .336
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JN Josh Naylor LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TW Taylor Ward RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 556 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .362
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CR Cal Raleigh SH .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 632 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 535 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 WW Weston Wilson RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.