PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Seattle Mariners

How the Seattle Mariners's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Sinker 22%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Seattle Mariners's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Seattle Mariners's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 546 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CY Cole Young LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CR Cal Raleigh SH .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 WW Weston Wilson RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Weston Wilson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BD Brendan Donovan LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brendan Donovan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LR Leo Rivas SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Rivas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JP Jhonny Pereda RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jhonny Pereda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.