PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 47%Sinker 21%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .323
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .372
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.