PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .291vs RHH xwOBA .270Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 50%Sinker 19%Cutter 18%Curveball 8%Changeup 4%Slider 1%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .377
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS George Springer RHB .362
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Myles Straw RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.