PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .270vs RHH xwOBA .267Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 51%Sinker 18%Cutter 16%Curveball 9%Changeup 4%Slider 2%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .378
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GS George Springer RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 YP Yohendrick Piñango LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yohendrick Piñango
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (51% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (2% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-16 game page →