PITCHER MATCHUP

Payton Tolle vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Payton Tolle's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Payton Tolle's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .257Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Sinker 22%Cutter 19%Curveball 9%Changeup 3%Slider 1%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Payton Tolle, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .370
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.