PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CK Colt Keith LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JB Javier Báez SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Max Clark LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Clark
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.