PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .223 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JB Javier Báez SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.