PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.