PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .273vs RHH xwOBA .241Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .232 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TF Tyler Freeman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.