PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .282vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 6%Curveball 3%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 KK Kyle Karros RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CN Connor Norby RHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CC Cole Carrigg SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Carrigg
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.