PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Colorado Rockies

How the Colorado Rockies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .265vs RHH xwOBA .239Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sweeper 16%Splitter 15%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%Curveball 4%

How the Colorado Rockies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Colorado Rockies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .230 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 EJ Edouard Julien LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edouard Julien
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TF Tyler Freeman RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-20 game page →