PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 617 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 548 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.