PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .302
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SS Spencer Steer RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DM Dane Myers RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.