PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .268vs RHH xwOBA .237Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sweeper 16%Splitter 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%Curveball 4%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SS Spencer Steer RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Matt McLain RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 472 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JB JJ Bleday LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BD Blake Dunn RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blake Dunn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-26 game page →