PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .243Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .237 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .218 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.