PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .244Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 609 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 AR Adley Rutschman SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-16 game page →