PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 644 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.