PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 719 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 390 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 618 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .431 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.