PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .269vs RHH xwOBA .237Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sweeper 16%Splitter 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%Curveball 4%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 528 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .434 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BH Bryce Harper LHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AB Alec Bohm RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JC Justin Crawford LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 ES Edmundo Sosa RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edmundo Sosa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →