PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .277vs RHH xwOBA .244Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 665 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 AB Alec Bohm RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 461 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .434 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BH Bryce Harper LHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BS Bryson Stott LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.