PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-25 game page →