PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .265vs RHH xwOBA .239Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sweeper 16%Splitter 15%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%Curveball 4%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CN Connor Norby RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.