PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .282vs RHH xwOBA .246Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 6%Curveball 3%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .224 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.