PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Cleveland Guardians

How the Cleveland Guardians's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the Cleveland Guardians's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cleveland Guardians's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JA Jo Adell RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jo Adell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Brayan Rocchio SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brayan Rocchio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 SK Steven Kwan LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Steven Kwan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 639 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CD Chase DeLauter LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase DeLauter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JR José Ramírez SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TB Travis Bazzana LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Travis Bazzana
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathaniel Lowe LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathaniel Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 567 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Angel Martínez SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Angel Martínez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 PB Patrick Bailey SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Patrick Bailey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.