PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs San Francisco Giants

How the San Francisco Giants's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .278vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the San Francisco Giants's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Francisco Giants's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 RD Rafael Devers LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rafael Devers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 606 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JH Jung Hoo Lee LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jung Hoo Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BE Bryce Eldridge LHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Eldridge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 DG Drew Gilbert LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Gilbert
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Christian Koss RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Koss
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DC Drew Cavanaugh LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Cavanaugh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OB Osleivis Basabe RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Osleivis Basabe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Jonah Cox RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonah Cox
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GM Grant McCray LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Grant McCray
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-01 game page →