PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 594 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 AB Alex Bregman RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 612 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 628 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 451 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.