PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .282vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 11%Sinker 10%Slider 6%Curveball 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 606 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyrone Taylor RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyrone Taylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.