PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .270vs RHH xwOBA .238Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%Curveball 4%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 575 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-25 game page →