PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-24 game page →