PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .271vs RHH xwOBA .238Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sweeper 16%Splitter 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%Curveball 4%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 507 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 364 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SF Sal Frelick LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Jackson Chourio SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CY Christian Yelich LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-12 game page →