PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 589 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SF Sal Frelick LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 529 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.