PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .284vs RHH xwOBA .245Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Sweeper 15%Splitter 13%Changeup 11%Sinker 11%Slider 7%Curveball 3%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 679 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 498 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LT Lane Thomas RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.