PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Skenes vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Skenes's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Skenes's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .238Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Sweeper 16%Splitter 14%Changeup 12%Sinker 10%Slider 5%Curveball 4%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Skenes, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .243 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (12% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-07 game page →