PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Blackburn vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Blackburn's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Blackburn's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .289vs RHH xwOBA .324Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 28%Cutter 26%Changeup 15%Curveball 12%Sweeper 11%Four-Seam Fastball 7%Slider 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Blackburn, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 370 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-09 game page →