PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Blackburn vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Blackburn's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Blackburn's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .286vs RHH xwOBA .323Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 30%Cutter 22%Changeup 18%Curveball 13%Sweeper 11%Four-Seam Fastball 6%Slider 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Blackburn, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 519 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.