PITCHER MATCHUP

Paul Blackburn vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Paul Blackburn's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Paul Blackburn's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .290vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 29%Cutter 24%Changeup 17%Curveball 13%Sweeper 11%Four-Seam Fastball 6%Slider 1%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Paul Blackburn, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .305
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Sinker (29% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.