PITCHER MATCHUP

Patrick Corbin vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Patrick Corbin's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Patrick Corbin's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .350Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Slider 32%Sinker 30%Cutter 22%Changeup 11%Four-Seam Fastball 5%Curveball 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Patrick Corbin, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 469 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Ian Happ SH .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MB Michael Busch LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MB Moisés Ballesteros LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Moisés Ballesteros
    • Slider (32% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-20 game page →