PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .353
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .409 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 483 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC José Caballero RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 TG Trent Grisham LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 431 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AW Austin Wells LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 JD Jasson Domínguez SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jasson Domínguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Amed Rosario RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Amed Rosario
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.