PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .271vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .328
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC José Caballero RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AW Austin Wells LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RM Ryan McMahon LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan McMahon
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 AJ Aaron Judge RHB .393
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Aaron Judge
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .443 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .456 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.