PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs New York Yankees

How the New York Yankees's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 24%Sinker 15%Curveball 9%Slider 8%Cutter 4%

How the New York Yankees's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Yankees's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 BR Ben Rice LHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Rice
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 LG Luis García Jr. LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis García Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CB Cody Bellinger LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cody Bellinger
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 588 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jazz Chisholm Jr. LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TG Trent Grisham LHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trent Grisham
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JC José Caballero RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Caballero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HR Heliot Ramos RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heliot Ramos
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PG Paul Goldschmidt RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Paul Goldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AW Austin Wells LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Wells
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.