PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Chicago White Sox

How the Chicago White Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 24%Sinker 15%Curveball 9%Slider 8%Cutter 4%

How the Chicago White Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago White Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 MV Miguel Vargas RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 526 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CM Colson Montgomery LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colson Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CM Chase Meidroth RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chase Meidroth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SA Sam Antonacci LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sam Antonacci
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Munetaka Murakami LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Munetaka Murakami
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TP Tristan Peters LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tristan Peters
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AB Andrew Benintendi LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Benintendi
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BM Braden Montgomery SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Braden Montgomery
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BD Brenton Doyle RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brenton Doyle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.