PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .256vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.