PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .274vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 24%Sinker 15%Curveball 9%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.