PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KC Kody Clemens SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 AM Austin Martin RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RL Royce Lewis RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VC Victor Caratini SH .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-21 game page →