PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .265vs RHH xwOBA .281Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 36%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 11%Slider 8%Cutter 5%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 RG Riley Greene LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JO James Outman LHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. James Outman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-13 game page →