PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 24%Sinker 15%Curveball 9%Slider 8%Cutter 4%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 566 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CK Colt Keith LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Keith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MV Matt Vierling RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Vierling
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KC Kerry Carpenter LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kerry Carpenter
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.