PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Detroit Tigers

How the Detroit Tigers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .263vs RHH xwOBA .280Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Detroit Tigers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Detroit Tigers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 KM Kevin McGonigle LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kevin McGonigle
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 DD Dillon Dingler RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dillon Dingler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 ST Spencer Torkelson RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Torkelson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RG Riley Greene LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Riley Greene
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 ZM Zach McKinstry LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Zach McKinstry
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GT Gleyber Torres RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gleyber Torres
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 HL Hao-Yu Lee RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hao-Yu Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JB Javier Báez SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Báez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Max Clark LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Max Clark
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.