PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .255vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Changeup 24%Sinker 16%Curveball 10%Slider 8%Cutter 5%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 463 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nick Loftin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .274
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyler Tolbert RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Tolbert
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-30 game page →