PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .267vs RHH xwOBA .279Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Adley Rutschman SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TS Trevor Story RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NS Nick Sogard SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-22 game page →