PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .256vs RHH xwOBA .276Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 38%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .262
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.