PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .303
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NF Nick Fortes RHB .275
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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