PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 24%Sinker 15%Curveball 9%Slider 8%Cutter 4%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .304
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .256
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .277
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.