PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .264vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Joe Mack LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-10 game page →