PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .271vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 637 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KM Ketel Marte SH .357
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 335 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TT Tim Tawa RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.