PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Arizona Diamondbacks

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Arizona Diamondbacks's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Arizona Diamondbacks's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 KM Ketel Marte SH .365
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ketel Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CC Corbin Carroll LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Corbin Carroll
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 586 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 GP Geraldo Perdomo SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Geraldo Perdomo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 539 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 NA Nolan Arenado RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Arenado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IV Ildemaro Vargas SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ildemaro Vargas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 GM Gabriel Moreno RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gabriel Moreno
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AD Adrian Del Castillo LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adrian Del Castillo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RW Ryan Waldschmidt RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Waldschmidt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tim Tawa RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tim Tawa
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-01 game page →