PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .271vs RHH xwOBA .277Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 39%Changeup 23%Sinker 15%Curveball 10%Slider 9%Cutter 4%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 570 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 435 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SF Sal Frelick LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DH David Hamilton LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.