PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .272vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 40%Changeup 24%Sinker 15%Curveball 9%Slider 8%Cutter 4%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 603 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jackson Chourio SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JB Jake Bauers LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SF Sal Frelick LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 537 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.