PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .276vs RHH xwOBA .287Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Changeup 24%Sinker 16%Curveball 12%Slider 10%Cutter 6%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 WC William Contreras RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BT Brice Turang LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 SF Sal Frelick LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Frelick
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 491 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 LR Luis Rengifo SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 DH David Hamilton LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CY Christian Yelich LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JC Jackson Chourio RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (24% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-18 game page →