PITCHER MATCHUP

Parker Messick vs Milwaukee Brewers

How the Milwaukee Brewers's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Parker Messick's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Parker Messick's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .266vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 35%Changeup 23%Sinker 16%Curveball 12%Slider 9%Cutter 5%

How the Milwaukee Brewers's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Milwaukee Brewers's top-9-by-AB hitters against Parker Messick, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BT Brice Turang LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Turang
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 WC William Contreras RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. William Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB Jake Bauers LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Bauers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 JC Jackson Chourio SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Chourio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GM Garrett Mitchell LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Garrett Mitchell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 CY Christian Yelich LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Yelich
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JO Joey Ortiz RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joey Ortiz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DH David Hamilton LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. David Hamilton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AV Andrew Vaughn RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrew Vaughn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (35% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.