PITCHER MATCHUP

Nick Lodolo vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Nick Lodolo's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Nick Lodolo's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Curveball 27%Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 25%Changeup 21%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Nick Lodolo, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .322
  1. 1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 508 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 554 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 310 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MC Michael Conforto LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (25% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-11 game page →