PITCHER MATCHUP

Miles Mikolas vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Miles Mikolas's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Miles Mikolas's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .348vs RHH xwOBA .338Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 27%Slider 23%Sinker 21%Curveball 15%Changeup 10%Sweeper 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Miles Mikolas, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 567 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (15% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

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