PITCHER MATCHUP

Miles Mikolas vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Miles Mikolas's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Miles Mikolas's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .349vs RHH xwOBA .346Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Slider 23%Sinker 21%Curveball 16%Changeup 10%Sweeper 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Miles Mikolas, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 606 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.